THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS CLOSED

THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
IS CLOSED

21 miles wide · 20 million barrels/day · Shut.

🔴 20+ SHIPS ATTACKED • 8 SEAFARERS DEAD • OIL UP 70% ($67→$119) • INSURANCE CANCELLED • 46 SHIPS GONE DARK • 1,100+ GPS JAMMED • QATAR GAS SHUT DOWN 🔴 20+ SHIPS ATTACKED • 8 SEAFARERS DEAD • OIL UP 70% ($67→$119) • INSURANCE CANCELLED • 46 SHIPS GONE DARK • 1,100+ GPS JAMMED • QATAR GAS SHUT DOWN

Intelligence Brief

BY THE NUMBERS

Barrels / Day

Global Oil Supply

Ships Attacked

Seafarers Killed

Ships Gone Dark

GPS Signals Jammed

Oil Price Surge

—

Insurance Coverage

BBL Reserve (SPR)

Escalation

13 DAYS OF CRISIS

DAY 13

Feb 27 — Day 1

US Navy ships leave Bahrain. Fifth Fleet repositions ahead of strikes.

Feb 28 — Day 2

Operation Epic Fury. Supreme Leader Khamenei killed in US strike.

Mar 1 — Day 3

First ships attacked. MV Skylight hit — 2 seafarers killed.

Mar 2 — Day 4

IRGC announces formal closure. Zero tankers transit the Strait.

Mar 3 — Day 5

Iran drone swarm hits Qatar gas infrastructure. LNG supply severed.

Mar 4 — Day 6

IRGC claims "complete control" of Strait. Mines confirmed in shipping lanes.

Mar 5 — Day 7

Lloyd's, P&I clubs withdraw war risk insurance for Persian Gulf.

Mar 8 — Day 10

Brent crude breaks $100/barrel. Psychological barrier shattered.

Mar 9 — Day 11

Oil hits $119.50. Only 1 ship makes it through the Strait.

Mar 10 — Day 12

Iran deploys mines in shipping lanes. US Navy destroys 16 minelaying vessels.

Mar 11 — Day 13

3 commercial ships hit in 3 hours. Strait effectively impassable.

AIS Navigation Metadata

MESSAGES IN A BOTTLE

🚢

ALL MUSLIMS ON BOARD

Source: Windward Maritime Intelligence

🚢

ALL CHINESE

Source: CSIS — Center for Strategic & International Studies

🚢

NO IL LINK

Source: Windward Maritime Intelligence

🚢

CHINA OWNER

Source: Bloomberg — vessel: Iron Maiden

Ships are writing survival messages into their navigation metadata.

The Novel Angle

WHO ACTUALLY GETS HURT?

🔴 South Korea / Japan / Taiwan

80%+

of oil imports pass through Hormuz
No meaningful alternative. Genuinely screwed.

🟢 United States

~5%

of oil is imported from Persian Gulf
Largest oil producer on Earth. Barely affected.

⚡ The public narrative that "gas is going to be expensive for everyone" misses the real story — this is an Asian energy crisis, not an American one.

Japan

80%+

South Korea

80%+

Taiwan

80%+

India

60%

China

50%

Europe

14%

United States

~2%

84% of Hormuz crude goes to Asia · 0% goes to the US

War Risk Premium

THE INSURANCE KILL SWITCH

$125,000

War risk premium per transit — February

$200,000

Premium doubles — March 1

$400,000

Premium quadruples — March 4

$500,000+

Premiums "unpriceable" — March 5

COVERAGE
CANCELLED

No insurance = No ship owner risks a $100M+ vessel. The Strait doesn't need to be physically blocked — just uninsurable.

Global Fragility

CHOKEPOINT DOMINOS

Strait of Hormuz

20M bbl/day · 21 miles wide

Connects Persian Gulf → Gulf of Oman

🔴 CLOSED

Suez Canal / Bab el-Mandeb

9M bbl/day · 205m wide

Houthi attacks ongoing since 2024

🟡 DISRUPTED

Strait of Malacca

16M bbl/day · 1.7 miles wide

Key route: Middle East → East Asia

🟢 OPEN

Panama Canal

1M bbl/day · 110ft wide

Drought-restricted since 2023

🟡 RESTRICTED

The world's shipping network has almost no redundancy. Two of four major chokepoints are now compromised.

Supply Chain

FROM STRAIT TO STORE

⛔ HORMUZ CLOSED — 20M bbl/day severed

▼

TIER 1 — Direct Impact

Oil +70%

Natural Gas

LNG Severed

Shipping Costs

▼

TIER 2 — Industrial Cascade

Fertilizer +43%

Jet Fuel

Plastics

Aluminum

Petrochemicals

▼

TIER 3 — Consumer Impact

Food Prices ↑

Manufacturing Halts

Universities Closed

Fuel Caps

Rationing

Navigation

THE ONLY DETOUR

Normal Route: HORMUZ

Persian Gulf → Strait of Hormuz → Gulf of Oman → Arabian Sea

Transit time: ~1 day

Cost: Standard

❌ CLOSED

Detour: Cape of Good Hope

Around the southern tip of Africa

Added distance: +3,500–4,000 nautical miles

Added time: +10–14 days

Added cost: $millions in fuel per voyage

⚠️ ONLY OPTION

⚠️ Red Sea / Suez Canal ALSO disrupted by Houthi attacks — ships face a double disruption. The "detour" route is itself compromised.

Analysis

GOLDMAN SACHS SCENARIOS

Full 1-month closure, no offsets

+$15/bbl

Full closure + pipeline rerouting

+$12/bbl

Full closure + pipelines + reserves

+$10/bbl (base case)

50% closure + pipelines

+$4/bbl

Source: Goldman Sachs Research, March 2026

Incident Log

20+ SHIPS HIT

MAR 1

MV Skylight — Hit by IRGC missiles. 2 seafarers killed. First casualties.

MAR 1

MT Nissos Kea — Greek tanker struck. Crew evacuated.

MAR 2

Stena Imperative — Swedish-owned tanker seized, then released.

MAR 3

MV Pacific Venture — Hit during Qatar gas infrastructure attack wave.

MAR 4

2 vessels — Struck by IRGC fast-attack boats near Qeshm Island.

MAR 6

Mussafah 2 — UAE-flagged vessel. Sunk. 3 crew killed.

MAR 8

3 tankers — Damaged by mines in eastern shipping lane.

MAR 10

Mine warfare — US Navy destroys 16 IRGC minelaying vessels.

MAR 11

3 ships hit in 3 hours — Coordinated ASCM + drone + fast boat attack. 3 killed.

TOTAL

20+ vessels attacked or damaged · Multiple ships seized · Mines deployed across shipping lanes

8 SEAFARERS KILLED

Last Line of Defense

US STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE

Total SPR Capacity

~400M barrels

Stored in salt caverns along the Gulf Coast · Only backfills ~50% of reduced capacity

Bryan Mound

Brazoria County, Texas

~75M

barrels capacity

▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░ salt dome caverns

Big Hill

Jefferson County, Texas

~160M

barrels capacity

▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░ salt dome caverns

West Hackberry

Cameron Parish, Louisiana

~110M

barrels capacity

▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░ salt dome caverns

Bayou Choctaw

Iberville Parish, Louisiana

~55M

barrels capacity

▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░ salt dome caverns

⚠️ At peak draw rate (~4.4M bbl/day), the SPR could offset roughly half the Hormuz shortfall — but only for ~90 days. After that, the wells run dry.